Enduring Franchises in a Changing World
Thoughts on allocating long-term capital to a small set of irreplaceable franchises.
In one of my funds, I concentrate on assets whose scarcity and cultural permanence allow them to endure far beyond a typical investment horizon. It makes sense to own assets that are both deeply desirable yet available to very few. Returns on this asset class have been consistently powerful for those able to hold over decades.
When it comes to scarce, desirable assets, it is difficult to find a clearer example than ownership of a major sports franchise, particularly in the United States. The wealthy are drawn to the prestige associated with holding one of only 124 major-league teams. There will never be a shortage of billionaires, family offices, private equity firms, and increasingly sovereign wealth funds seeking to acquire these positions.
The attraction of these franchises is that, in broad terms, their value is not dictated by annual results or operational performance. Cashflow matters, but it is not the primary driver of long-term worth. Even events like player strikes create only temporary disruption; over time, the franchises continue to compound in value regardless.
For most investors, the challenge has always been access. These are trophy assets, and their appreciation has historically been enjoyed almost exclusively by private owners.
There are only a handful of assets in today’s market that meet my criteria. In the cases below, I simply hold and allow the underlying franchises to compound until a control buyer eventually emerges.
Atlanta Braves Holdings
The Atlanta Braves underlying franchise value has been estimated at $3.1 billion, and the total company at $4.4 billion, increasing by about 14% per year. The stock trades at a valuation of $2.5 billion and is the only listed, major-league, U.S. sports franchise without a controlling shareholder.
Major League Baseball is widely expected to expand in the coming years, with new franchises projected to command $2.5–3.0 billion entry fees. Importantly, the Braves’ $4.4 billion valuation above includes approximately $1.3 billion in mixed-use real estate surrounding Truist Park.
That means a 154-year-old franchise — the oldest in U.S. professional sports, with a large and expanding regional footprint across six states and annual revenue north of $700 million — is implicitly valued on par with an expansion team with no history, no fan base, and no established commercial ecosystem.
Put another way: At a $2.5 billion market cap, removing the $1.3 billion property component implies the Braves’ on-field franchise is trading at less than half the price a brand-new MLB team is likely to command.
There is also good reasoning that MLB franchises will be even more attractive in the future, implying my expected CAGR of 14% for the Braves company leans on the conservative side.
A control buyer is widely expected to emerge, potentially as early as 2026–2027, which would shorten the compounding runway. Historically, transactions of this type include a control premium of around 30% to underlying valuation.
The key consideration with the Braves is the duration of its public life. At today’s price, the shares trade at roughly a 40% discount to current intrinsic value which is still likely conservative. If the franchise were to remain listed for a full decade—compounding at ~14% annually and ultimately being acquired at a 30% premium—the implied shareholder return would rise to approximately a 23% CAGR or more.
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp carries an underlying asset value of roughly $10 billion based on recent comparable team sales, with the franchises themselves appreciating at around 12% per year. Against a public market capitalization of $5.2 billion, this implies an approximate 20% CAGR at today’s stock price if value were crystallised at 1× NAV in ten years.
If a sale occurred at that time with a 30% change-of-control premium, the implied return would rise to roughly a 23% CAGR over the decade.
The Dolan family takes a long view, but I could foresee a sale or value-generating transaction within the next decade. A potential Rangers spin-off would accelerate value recognition. Earlier this year, MSGS moved its corporate domicile from Delaware to Nevada. Tax planning no doubt, though not necessarily signifying any impending activity.
Ollamani S.A.B.
Ollamani listed on the BMV in early 2024 and the share price has climbed steadily since, yet the underlying assets remain deeply mispriced.
The company owns Club América — the most successful club in Mexican football, with an estimated 30 million supporters in Mexico and another 15 million in the United States, reaching an average of 6 million viewers per game. Ollamani also operates 17 PlayCity casinos and owns Estadio Banorte (formerly Estadio Azteca), the country’s largest stadium and one of world football’s defining venues. With a capacity just over 80,000, it has hosted two World Cup finals and is set to host matches again in 2026.
A straightforward sum-of-the-parts approach highlights the disconnect between asset value and market value:
Club América: USD 770 million (via Sportico), ~45% of revenue including Banorte.
PlayCity Casinos: USD 300 million, ~46% of revenue.
Estadio Banorte: USD 150 million.
Media Assets: USD 60 million, ~9% of revenue.
This puts Ollamani’s assets at roughly USD 1.28 billion, against a current market valuation of about USD 403 million.
In effect, the market is offering the casinos and stadium at a discount — and you get a USD 770 million football franchise for free.
With Group Televisa still holding around 87% of the float after the spin-off, a discount is expected, and Mexico carries some additional regulatory and jurisdictional risk. Even so, the current gap is far too wide, and the underlying franchise value will continue to compound.
Formula One Group
Formula One is the premium, globally recognised motorsport brand. In 2023, Liberty rejected a $20 billion bid from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). A control transaction would require a sovereign wealth bidder willing to pay above an enterprise value of roughly $30 billion today. At current stock level, that implies a premium of only 10–15%. In the meantime, the business now encompasses both Formula One and MotoGP, two global motorsport properties with strong, growing, durable fan bases.
Some even suggest that the recent F1 film was essentially one big ‘for sale’ advert.
The longer a sovereign bid takes to materialise, the longer the investment continues to compound at an estimated ~12% CAGR, with limited structural downside.
Broader Considerations
The risks of value traps are very real in markets, but the assets discussed here are not comparable to the obscure, thinly-traded conglomerates that sit on public exchanges for generations without any prospect of monetisation. Sports has its own share of uninvestable listings as well. Celtic PLC and AIK Fotboll AB are clear examples—but those are structurally different stories with limited strategic optionality.
The franchises outlined above rank among the most sought-after assets in global sport. Their long-term value growth reflects that rarity.
I hold positions in a number of franchises, but these three represent my largest positions. The intent is not to capture short-term movements, but to own assets with limited structural downside and a steady, reliable appreciation over time. Participating in the growth of scarce, durable, generational assets is a privilege for as long as public markets make it possible, until inevitably they are taken private again.
For investors with the patience to withstand market volatility and liquidity events, the valuations of major sports franchises and leagues continue to rise alongside the expansion of global wealth—particularly at the highest tiers.